How to be wrong so often you become right

Welcome to Thinking in Public — where I share what I’m learning as I learn it, so you can get the strategy, clarity, and mental frameworks you need from someone who faced your problems last year, not 20 years ago.

Most smart people aren’t actually bad at thinking. They’re just predictable.

Here’s what usually happens: You encounter a decision, consider your options, weigh pros and cons, then make the obvious choice. It sounds reasonable. It’s how we’re taught to think in school, in work, and in most life decisions.

The problem is that everyone else thinks this way too. Which means if you follow this approach, your outcomes will always be average. Not because you’re lazy or unintelligent, but because your thinking stops at the surface level, exactly like everyone else’s. You become predictable. And predictability leads directly to mediocrity.

If you want extraordinary outcomes, you have to deliberately go further. You have to systematically develop what’s known as second-order thinking.

What Is Second-Order Thinking?

Second-order thinking means explicitly considering the consequences of consequences.

If first-order thinking is:

“This decision will cause this result,”

Then second-order thinking is:

“If this result occurs, what happens next? And after that? And what does this imply long-term?”

In other words, second-order thinking pushes you to go beyond immediate outcomes and deliberately explore ripple effects. It forces you to see around corners that everyone else misses.

Here’s a concrete example:

• First-order thinking: “If we lower our prices, we’ll get more customers and grow faster.”
• Second-order thinking: “But if we lower our prices, we attract price-sensitive customers, reducing profitability, increasing churn, and ultimately damaging our brand’s perceived quality over time.”

First-order thinking is easier. It’s simple, it’s intuitive, and it feels rational. That’s why it’s common.

But second-order thinking is rare, precisely because it’s uncomfortable and counterintuitive. It demands you stop accepting the surface-level story—and instead rigorously pursue hidden effects that unfold over longer time horizons.

Why Most People Fail at Second-Order Thinking

Most people fail at second-order thinking for three reasons:

1. It’s not intuitive. Your brain prefers quick, clear conclusions. Considering ripple effects is cognitively demanding and uncertain, so your mind tries to skip it entirely.
2. It’s uncomfortable. Real second-order thinking challenges your initial beliefs, assumptions, and optimism. It exposes flaws in your logic and threatens your sense of certainty.
3. It’s hard to measure. First-order effects are visible and immediate. Second-order effects are subtle, indirect, and often long-term. Most people are impatient and can’t clearly quantify these delayed results, so they ignore them.

These three reasons combine to produce predictable thinkers—people whose reasoning is shallow and whose strategies are easily outflanked by competitors who simply think one level deeper.

How to Train Yourself to Think in Second-Order Effects

Second-order thinking isn’t some innate gift. It’s a deliberate, trainable skill. Here’s the exact method to build it systematically:

Step 1: Explicitly Write Down Your Decision

This forces you to define the exact action you’re considering. Clarity of decision is a prerequisite for clarity of thought.

Step 2: List First-Order Consequences Clearly

Don’t skip this step, even though it seems obvious. Explicitly list exactly what you expect to happen if you make this decision. Be detailed. Writing it down is critical.

Step 3: Ask “And then what?”

For each first-order consequence you listed, explicitly ask yourself:

• “What happens next, once this first-order consequence takes place?”
• “What new behaviors, incentives, or problems emerge as a direct result of this first outcome?”

For example, lowering prices (first-order) attracts price-sensitive customers (second-order), who then complain more frequently, costing you time and resources (third-order).

Step 4: Go Even Further—Explore Third-Order and Beyond

True strategic thinkers push deeper. For each second-order consequence, repeat the question: “And then what?” Follow consequences as far as you can. You’ll start to notice patterns, risks, and hidden opportunities nobody else sees.

Step 5: Consider Counter-Intuitive Outcomes

This is critical. At each step, explicitly question your assumptions:

• “What if the opposite of what I expect actually happens?”
• “How might this decision unintentionally reward behaviors I don’t want?”
• “What might competitors or users do differently in response to this decision?”

This explicit skepticism forces your brain to spot traps in your initial reasoning.

All this might sound like a lot, but trust me you only need to do it intentionally for like a month before you start noticing patterns in so many things, you won’t need to physically write things down anymore. Pretty quickly your instincts will sharpen so much, you’ll be surprised less and less by most things that happen.

An Example From My Own Experience

Early on, when running marketing campaigns, I often made decisions that optimized for short-term gains. It seemed rational: quick results feel good, and immediate metrics are easier to report.

But second-order thinking forced me to recognize the hidden cost. Short-term marketing tricks like price discounts, growth hacking etc. attracted customers who churned quickly or complained constantly, destroying profitability. Meanwhile, more patient competitors (who started at the same time as I did), used second-order thinking, optimized for long-term relationships and ended up far more profitable.

The immediate metrics were worse for them—but the long-term outcomes (2 years out) dramatically better. They simply out-thought me.

Since then, I deliberately force myself into second-order mode whenever I make strategic decisions—especially if those decisions seem obviously correct. I ask repeatedly, “And then what?” until I spot potential second-order issues clearly.

Another funny example I won’t go in depth on, but I’ll mention because it is always hilarious: when in the middle of a debate someone goes “oh yeah? well you probably (insert generalized assumption here).”

It’s always comical because, frankly, it immediately shows me how terrible of a thinker the person in front of me is to not have planned for the scenario where there assumption was wrong.

This becomes even funnier because that same sort of person, when told their assumption was wrong, will usually follow it up by making more assumptions!

Second-Order Thinking Is a Strategic Advantage

If your competition uses first-order thinking, second-order thinking is your strongest weapon. It allows you to reliably out-strategize, not because you’re smarter, but because you’re deliberately looking deeper.

Second-order thinking makes you unpredictable, strategic, and harder to copy. It helps you avoid hidden costs, sidestep invisible risks, and capture overlooked opportunities.

It’s your unfair advantage—one that most smart, talented people intuitively know exists, but rarely test their predictions enough to sharpen this skill.

Final Thoughts: Moving From First to Second-Order Thinking

Most of the world stops at first-order thinking. The incentives in schools, jobs, and even media reinforce quick, obvious answers. The world rewards speed and apparent decisiveness, not accuracy or careful thought.

But your own life and career demand deeper clarity. Your ability to reliably identify second-order effects isn’t just nice to have—it's mandatory if you want meaningful leverage.

Thinking clearly isn’t an abstract virtue. It’s tangible, trainable, and profitable. And the best place to start is by consistently asking yourself one deceptively simple question:

“If I do this—what happens next?”

If you master that habit, you’ve already moved ahead of almost everyone else.

— Ali

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